12.5 2012 Le Monde (France), Peak Oil Warning from an IMF Expert: Interview with Michael Kumhof by Matthieu Auzanneau
Michael Kumhof is the deputy chief of the modeling division at the research department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Together with other researchers from IMF, this 50 years old German economist has published several papers focused of "peak oil", sending warnings regarding the possible imminence of a decline of world oil production and its impacts.
Echos of these concerns about peak oil are nowhere to be found in the official policy line of IMF, nor has Michael Kumhof ever been asked to present his research to. Read full article.
10.5 2012 Washington Post, IMF Study: Peak Oil Could Do Serious Damange to the Global Economy by by Brad Plumer
The world isn’t going to run out of oil anytime soon. But there’s still concern among various geologists and analysts that our oil supply won’t grow as quickly or as easily as it used to. We’ll have to resort to harder-to-drill oil to satisfy our crude habits. More expensive oil. That would push prices up. And high oil prices could act as a drag on growth.
This, at any rate, is the basic idea behind “peak oil.” And there’s some reason for worry. Between 1981 and 2005, world oil production grew at a steady pace of about 1.8 percent per year. All was well. But starting around 2005, oil production appeared to plateau. Read full article.
8.20.2012 New Scientist, We’re Still on the Slippery Slope to Peak Oil by David Strahan
Technology and exploitation of unconventional sources can't defer the long-predicted decline in global oil production
IN 2007 former US energy secretary James Schlesinger claimed the arguments in favour of peak oil - the key theory that global production must peak and then decline - had been won. With production flat and prices surging towards an all-time high of $147 per barrel Read full article.
5.13.2012 Guardian (UK), Oil Prices Could Double by 2022, IMF Warned by Terry Macalister and Lionel Badal
Global trade would be profoundly affected if crude prices permanently doubled from current historic high of $113 a barrel
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been warned by its internal research team that there could be a permanent doubling of oil prices in the coming decade with profound implications for global trade.
"This is uncharted territory for the world economy, which has never experienced such prices for more than a few months," the report warns. Read full article.
4.21.2012 Economist, Feeling Peaky by Buttonwood
AS THE developed-world economy tries to gain momentum, it faces a persistent headwind. The oil price remains stubbornly over $100 a barrel, acting like a tax on Western consumers. Some blame the high price on evil speculators—Barack Obama unveiled plans to increase penalties for market manipulation on April 17th. But there is a simpler explanation: that supply is inadequate to keep up with rising demand. Read full article.