Oil: Presentations
April, 2012 Institute of International and European Affairs, Dublin
Michael Kumhof explains the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Department's new, strikingly more accurate, oil supply/price/demand prediction model, and says that according to the model oil prices will need to double in a decade to grow world oil production by 0.9%, in line with published EIA predictions*.
October, 2011 Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Ireland, Dublin
Assessing the Risks – Oil Scarcity & the Global Economy
Dr. Michael Kumhof, a Deputy Chief at the International Monetary Fund presents his latest research on energy augmented macroeconomic models which formed the basis of Chapter 3 of the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook, entitled ‘Oil Scarcity, Growth, and Global Imbalances’. This work is a noteworthy departure from classical economic growth modeling methodologies. He is joined by Dr. Robert Ayres (INSEAD) and Dr. Roger Bentley (UK ERC), whose respective work on the role of energy in economic growth and oil production forecasts, were referenced in the IMF study. To view slides, click here.
This seminar highlights how:
Dr. Michael Kumhof, a Deputy Chief at the International Monetary Fund presents his latest research on energy augmented macroeconomic models which formed the basis of Chapter 3 of the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook, entitled ‘Oil Scarcity, Growth, and Global Imbalances’. This work is a noteworthy departure from classical economic growth modeling methodologies. He is joined by Dr. Robert Ayres (INSEAD) and Dr. Roger Bentley (UK ERC), whose respective work on the role of energy in economic growth and oil production forecasts, were referenced in the IMF study. To view slides, click here.
This seminar highlights how:
- traditional models of economic growth exclude energy as a factor of production
- present a new model incorporating energy as a factor of production (Ayres)
- present an overview of a comprehensive study of future oil production forecasts and their attendant risks (Bentley)
- an updated IMF model for economic growth incorporating oil and considering different future availability scenarios (Kumhof)